Exams

Been a long time since my last post, and I am afraid that it will probably be a little while until my next one. The reason is that I have been revising for my exams which start tomorrow and last 2 weeks.

Will be back on the 23rd after which I will be playing a lot of poker (I need the money for the summer), so until then.... happy grinding.

96% equity is NOT enough

It seems my luck has not yet changed and I continue to be murdered by the deck. I have now passed the 10BI mark and so can label this as a genuine 'big' downswing.

Played about 800 hands last night for a net loss of 4BIs at 30NL, although I think that I played well. Am liking my new 'tigher' style as it avoids getting into tricky spots, and people seem to 3-bet me less.

The 'big beat' last night was getting it AI with a Q high flush draw on the turn vs a really badly played straight, and him rivering a straight flush. Luckily he was only shortstacked, but I think that this is still a pretty insane beat. Poker stove analysis shows him to have 4% equity on the turn. Here is the hand.

Also managed to get it AI with a straight vs a set on the turn for a full stack, but full tilt decided that I don't deserve to win.... so he riveres a boat. The reason I call the 3-bet preflop is because the player is very tight, and I think his 3-betting range is very strong, giving me good implied odds if I hit hard with KTs. Hand here

Twice I got 3 outered, first hand where I flopped the nut straight with a J high flush redraw (J9 on a 8QT board), an insanely strong hand. I managed to get it AI 3-ways, vs AQ and K9, and turned a J giving K9 a higher straight, and missing my flush outs. Second 3 outer was vs a shortstack who thought it wise to 3-bet me with A2o and then barrel away with A high, maybe he already knew what the river card would be? Hand here.

A few other coolers to go with the above.... called a minraise on a JTA54r board on the river in a small pot with A9 vs villains A4 and took my self to valuetown with A9 vs AT on a A35KQ board.

So all in all poker is not treating me well at the moment..... (sympathy please)

7BI down..... going to take it easy now

So April has not been treating me well so far.... I did ok for about 500 hands, and then in 2 days I dropped 7BI. Going through my hand histories, in the past 1700 hands I have had the following:

QQ < AA vs a 35/30 BB vs SB
AK < AA vs a LAG
KK < AA
55 < 99 on a 594 flop
TT < J9 on a 259 flop (river is a 9)
KQ < AQ on a 48Q flop (villain limp-called preflop and I stacked off for 60BBs)
TQ < 88 on a 8Q6 flop (lost about 60BBs on this one.... might have been tilting a bit)
and finally 55 this hand vs an aggro lag


So basically have not been running that well :-( but thats poker :-)

I have some important exams coming up in 4 weeks and lots of revision to do, so I have decided to move down to 25NL until after my exams are over because I don't want to go on life tilt and let it affect my revision. So for the rest of the month (and some of next month) I am going stick to playing 25NL and play a few low BI tourneys.... and basically just play poker for fun of it and to de-stress. Once exams are over I will move back up to 50NL and hopefully run good like Mr Rahl!

I know I said I would stick to 25NL.... but decided to play some of the 15c/30c deepstacked tables on full tilt last night, but only brought in for $30, so my relative stack was only 100BBs. The games were pretty good, and I think I played fairly solid poker, and managed to end up only slightly down after I lost with set under set again.


Having run into aces so many times in the last few days, I remembered a discussion I had a long time ago with some members on the uni poker society about shoving AK preflop and so I did a few calculations.

I think that a lot of people don't realise quite how much difference having an A and a K makes to the probability of your opponent holding AA or KK. For example, if I hold QQ in the BB, its folded to the SB who openshoves (unlikely but whatever), what is the probability that he has AA or KK: ((4/50)*(3/49))+((4/50)*(3/49)) = 1/102 So, every time you are HU with QQ, there is a 1 in 102 chance that you are up against AA or KK (based purely on probability). Now if we repeat the calculation, but we have AK: ((3/50)*(2/49))+(3/50)*(2/49)) = 1/204 So, if we hold AK, it makes the probability that our opponent has AA or KK half as likely, which I think is pretty significant.

Obviously other factors need to be taken into account such as stats, reads, number of opponents going AI etc.... and I am not saying that it is correct or not to shove AK preflop... but I just thought it was interesting that having the A and K 'blockers' makes it twice as unlikely for your opponent to have AA or KK.

Never fold a hand that can't flop the nuts!

Decided to play a bit of 10NL on stars last night with Matt and Isaac..... what a night!

My stars balance at the start of the night was only $2 (all those $4/180s have been killing me!) and so I decided to see how far I could run it up before I went bust. I think I lasted about 4 hands after which I ran AT into 99 and so I asked Isaac if we could do a transfer and so I sent him $50 and he sent me $50 on stars. I have been wanting to get a bit of money on stars so I can play the occasional good value tournament and also I had told Matt that I would play some 10NL with him as he has recently started playing 6max having been a SNG and FR player.

So with $50 in my account we opened up a new table, and Nathan (friend of Matt) also joined us. I had a feeling that this was going to be somewhat reminiscent of a certain late night cash game we played a few weeks ago..... and it sure was. It was clear from the start that neither Isaac or myself ever intended to fold a hand and 3-betting light/calling down with T high became the norm. After about an hour there were about 3 people on the waiting list for our table and given that Isaac was playing 35/30, I was playing 50/45, Nathan was at about 30/25, Matt was at a cool 20/15 and the other 2 players were complete nits.... I wonder who the fish were ;)

Anyway... now for some gems of the night.... I feel bad for Matt who ran really bad.... especially when he ran his AA into my flushdraw (sorry Matt), so I hope last night did not kill his confidence in his game.




Obv Isaac sucks out on me because he runs good..... post hand analysis shows me as a 70% favourite on the turn

PokerStars Game #16418464775: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 18:18:55 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: cashsnack ($2 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($9.60 in chips)
Seat 4: tazg15 ($10.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($9.90 in chips)
Isaac: posts small blind $0.05
cashsnack: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [Kc Kh]
Guy: raises $0.30 to $0.40
tazg15: folds
Isaac: calls $0.35
cashsnack: folds
*** FLOP *** [7c 5h Tc]
Isaac: checks
Guy: bets $0.60
Isaac: raises $1.20 to $1.80
Guy: calls $1.20
*** TURN *** [7c 5h Tc] [9c]
Isaac: bets $3.20
Guy: raises $4.20 to $7.40 and is all-in
Isaac: calls $4.20
*** RIVER *** [7c 5h Tc 9c] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Isaac: shows [8d 8c] (three of a kind, Eights)
Guy: mucks hand
Isaac collected $18.35 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $19.30 | Rake $0.95
Board [7c 5h Tc 9c 8s]
Seat 2: cashsnack (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Guy mucked [Kc Kh]
Seat 4: tazg15 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Isaac (small blind) showed [8d 8c] and won ($18.35) with three of a kind, Eights



Bluff raising a 4-straight board...

***** Hand History for Game 16418858379 *****
$10.00 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 01, 06:36:28 2008
Table Prospero V (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ( $10.35 )
Seat 2: soldatti ( $10.00 )
Seat 3: Guy ( $11.35 )
Seat 4: plus5 ( $9.70 )
Seat 5: hjtakeuchi ( $13.50 )
Seat 6: Isaac ( $19.15 )
hjtakeuchi posts the small blind [$0.05].
Isaac posts the big blind [$0.10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Guy [ 7h 8d ]
Matt folds
soldatti folds
Guy raises [$0.30]
plus5 folds
hjtakeuchi folds
Isaac calls [$0.20]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, Qs, As ]
Isaac checks
Guy checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
Isaac checks
Guy checks
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
Isaac bets [$0.40]
Guy raises [$1.50]
Isaac folds
Guy wins $1.40 from main pot
Guy wins $1.10 from main pot


I get completely owned by AA

***** Hand History for Game 16419151135 *****
$10.00 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 01, 06:49:45 2008
Table Prospero V (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ( $11.15 )
Seat 2: soldatti ( $9.25 )
Seat 3: Guy ( $11.60 )
Seat 4: plus5 ( $10.00 )
Seat 5: hjtakeuchi ( $14.40 )
Seat 6: Isaac ( $18.15 )
hjtakeuchi posts the small blind [$0.05].
Isaac posts the big blind [$0.10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Guy [ Qh Js ]
Matt folds
soldatti folds
Guy raises [$0.40]
plus5 calls [$0.40]
hjtakeuchi folds
Isaac folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 4s, 2c ]
Guy bets [$0.50]
plus5 calls [$0.50]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
Guy checks
plus5 bets [$1.00]
Guy calls [$1.00]
** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
Guy bets [$2.50]
plus5 calls [$2.50]
Guy shows [Qh Js ]
plus5 shows [As Ac ]
plus5 wins $8.55 from main pot


Definitely missed a valuebet on this river!

PokerStars Game #16419235351: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 18:53:43 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($11 in chips)
Seat 2: soldatti ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($10.70 in chips)
Seat 4: plus5 ($14 in chips)
Seat 5: hjtakeuchi ($13.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($18.15 in chips)
hjtakeuchi: posts small blind $0.05
Isaac: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [6d 6c]
Matt: folds
soldatti: folds
Guy: raises $0.10 to $0.20
plus5: folds
hjtakeuchi: folds
Isaac: calls $0.10
*** FLOP *** [8h 5s Js]
Isaac: checks
Guy: checks
*** TURN *** [8h 5s Js] [Ks]
Isaac: checks
Guy: checks
*** RIVER *** [8h 5s Js Ks] [7d]
Isaac: checks
Guy: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Isaac: shows [5d 9s] (a pair of Fives)
Guy: shows [6d 6c] (a pair of Sixes)
Guy collected $0.45 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.45 | Rake $0
Board [8h 5s Js Ks 7d]
Seat 1: Matt folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: soldatti folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Guy showed [6d 6c] and won ($0.45) with a pair of Sixes
Seat 4: plus5 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: hjtakeuchi (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Isaac (big blind) showed [5d 9s] and lost with a pair of Fives



At this point Nathan entered the game and the 3-betting really started to get going

PokerStars Game #16419618514: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 19:11:30 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10.90 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($12.30 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($5.40 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($16.25 in chips)
Matt: posts small blind $0.05
Guy: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [7h 2d]
Nathan: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Isaac: folds
Matt: folds
Guy: raises $0.70 to $1
Nathan: folds
Guy collected $0.65 from pot
Guy: shows [7h 2d] (high card Seven)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.65 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Matt (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Guy (big blind) collected ($0.65)
Seat 5: Nathan folded before Flop
Seat 6: Isaac (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)


PokerStars Game #16419970339: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 19:28:10 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: forseti23 ($5.85 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($13.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Duffman911 ($2.05 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($6.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($18.30 in chips)
forseti23: posts small blind $0.05
Guy: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [2d 9h]
Duffman911: calls $0.10
Nathan: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Isaac: folds
Matt: folds
forseti23: folds
Guy: raises $0.80 to $1.10
Duffman911: folds
Nathan: folds
Guy collected $0.75 from pot
Guy: shows [2d 9h] (high card Nine)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.75 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Matt (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: forseti23 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Guy (big blind) collected ($0.75)
Seat 4: Duffman911 folded before Flop
Seat 5: Nathan folded before Flop
Seat 6: Isaac folded before Flop (didn't bet)


PokerStars Game #16420019712: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 19:30:32 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10.15 in chips)
Seat 2: forseti23 ($5.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($12.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Duffman911 ($4.20 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($6.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($18 in chips)
Nathan: posts small blind $0.05
Isaac: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [Ah 5s]
Matt: folds
forseti23: folds
Guy: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Duffman911: folds
Nathan: raises $0.80 to $1.10
Isaac: folds
Guy: raises $1.90 to $3
Nathan: calls $1.90
*** FLOP *** [Qh 9c 7d]
Nathan: bets $3.05 and is all-in
Guy: folds
Nathan collected $5.80 from pot
Nathan: shows [2h 2c] (a pair of Deuces)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.10 | Rake $0.30
Board [Qh 9c 7d]
Seat 1: Matt folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: forseti23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Guy folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Duffman911 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Nathan (small blind) collected ($5.80)
Seat 6: Isaac (big blind) folded before Flop


Me owning Isaac :)

***** Hand History for Game 16420143061 *****
$10.00 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 01, 07:36:20 2008
Table Prospero V (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ( $10.00 )
Seat 2: forseti23 ( $5.95 )
Seat 3: Guy ( $10.05 )
Seat 4: Duffman911 ( $3.90 )
Seat 5: Nathan ( $9.50 )
Seat 6: Isaac ( $18.05 )
Duffman911 posts the small blind [$0.05].
Nathan posts the big blind [$0.10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Guy [ 2s 6s ]
Isaac raises [$0.30]
Matt folds
forseti23 folds
Guy calls [$0.30]
Duffman911 folds
Nathan calls [$0.20]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jc, 2c, 2h ]
Nathan checks
Isaac bets [$0.60]
Guy calls [$0.60]
Nathan folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jd ]
Isaac checks
Guy checks
** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]
Isaac checks
Guy bets [$1.00]
Isaac calls [$1.00]
Guy shows [2s 6s ]
Guy wins $3.95 from main pot
Isaac doesn't show [6h 6c ]


This is the unfortunate hand vs Matt where I put him on overcards and expect him to fold to my c/r.... unfortunately he has AA and I manage to hit my outs

PokerStars Game #16420308095: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 19:44:04 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10.50 in chips)
Seat 2: forseti23 ($6.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($11.20 in chips)
Seat 4: Kalikat003 ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($13.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($16.20 in chips)
forseti23: posts small blind $0.05
Guy: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [9h Qh]
Kalikat003: calls $0.10
Nathan: folds
Isaac: folds
Matt: raises $0.30 to $0.40
forseti23: folds
Guy: calls $0.30
Kalikat003: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [8c 5h 3h]
Guy: checks
Kalikat003: checks
Matt: bets $1
Guy: raises $3 to $4
Kalikat003: folds
Matt: raises $6.10 to $10.10 and is all-in
Guy: calls $6.10
*** TURN *** [8c 5h 3h] [8h]
*** RIVER *** [8c 5h 3h 8h] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Guy: shows [9h Qh] (a flush, King high)
Matt: mucks hand
Guy collected $20.40 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $21.45 | Rake $1.05
Board [8c 5h 3h 8h Kh]
Seat 1: Matt (button) mucked [Ad As]
Seat 2: forseti23 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Guy (big blind) showed [9h Qh] and won ($20.40) with a flush, King high
Seat 4: Kalikat003 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Nathan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Isaac folded before Flop (didn't bet)


There comes a time in poker where you become too lazy to use the slider and so are reduced to minbets.... and look at that river outdraw... and my 10c bet with the nut low!

***** Hand History for Game 16420737855 *****
$10.00 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 01, 08:04:28 2008
Table Prospero V (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ( $10.35 )
Seat 3: Guy ( $22.10 )
Seat 4: rayrns ( $9.90 )
Seat 5: Nathan ( $16.75 )
Seat 6: Isaac ( $15.85 )
Matt posts the small blind [$0.05].
Guy posts the big blind [$0.10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Guy [ 2c 2s ]
rayrns folds
Nathan calls [$0.10]
Isaac calls [$0.10]
Matt calls [$0.05]
Guy raises [$0.10]
Nathan raises [$0.20]
Isaac folds
Matt folds
Guy raises [$0.20]
Nathan calls [$0.10]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Th, 3h ]
Guy bets [$0.10]
Nathan raises [$0.20]
Guy raises [$0.20]
Nathan raises [$0.20]
Guy calls [$0.10]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
Guy bets [$0.10]
Nathan calls [$0.10]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
Guy bets [$0.10]
Nathan calls [$0.10]
Guy shows [2c 2s ]
Nathan shows [Js Kh ]
Nathan wins $2.10 from main pot



Another gem where I manage a massive outdraw

PokerStars Game #16420781609: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 20:06:33 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($21.95 in chips)
Seat 4: rayrns ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($17.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($15.75 in chips)
rayrns: posts small blind $0.05
Nathan: posts big blind $0.10
Matt98568: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [Jd Kh]
Isaac: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Matt: calls $0.30
Guy: calls $0.30
rayrns: folds
Nathan: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [As Jh 8c]
Nathan: bets $0.10
Isaac: calls $0.10
Matt: calls $0.10
Guy: raises $0.10 to $0.20
Nathan: raises $0.10 to $0.30
Isaac: calls $0.20
Matt: calls $0.20
Guy: calls $0.10
*** TURN *** [As Jh 8c] [8d]
Nathan: checks
Isaac: checks
Matt: checks
Guy: bets $0.10
Nathan: calls $0.10
Isaac: calls $0.10
Matt: calls $0.10
*** RIVER *** [As Jh 8c 8d] [Jc]
Nathan: checks
Isaac: checks
Matt: checks
Guy: bets $1.50
Nathan: folds
Isaac: calls $1.50
Matt: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Guy: shows [Jd Kh] (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
Isaac: mucks hand
Guy collected $5.60 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5.85 | Rake $0.25
Board [As Jh 8c 8d Jc]
Seat 1: Matt folded on the River
Seat 3: Guy (button) showed [Jd Kh] and won ($5.60) with a full house, Jacks full of Eights
Seat 4: rayrns (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Nathan (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: Isaac mucked [Qh Qc]


Nathan trying his tricks again

***** Hand History for Game 16421067316 *****
$10.00 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 01, 08:20:07 2008
Table Prospero V (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 2: ADUBS23 ( $6.00 )
Seat 3: Guy ( $27.10 )
Seat 4: rayrns ( $16.80 )
Seat 5: Nathan ( $7.25 )
Seat 6: Isaac ( $24.15 )
Nathan posts the small blind [$0.05].
Isaac posts the big blind [$0.10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Guy [ Jh Ah ]
ADUBS23 folds
Guy raises [$0.30]
rayrns folds
Nathan calls [$0.25]
Isaac calls [$0.20]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, 2c, 3d ]
Nathan checks
Isaac checks
Guy bets [$0.40]
Nathan raises [$0.80]
Isaac folds
Guy calls [$0.40]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
Nathan bets [$1.40]
Guy calls [$1.40]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
Nathan checks
Guy checks
Nathan shows [Qs Jd ]
Guy shows [Jh Ah ]
Guy wins $5.05 from main pot



Isaac makes an attempt to steal this pot (was calling a shove btw) :)

PokerStars Game #16421168045: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 20:24:52 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ArlBsch ($19.15 in chips)
Seat 2: ADUBS23 ($5.55 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($18.75 in chips)
Seat 4: rayrns ($16.65 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($5.70 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($32.75 in chips)
Isaac: posts small blind $0.05
ArlBsch: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [Th Kc]
ADUBS23: calls $0.10
Guy: raises $0.30 to $0.40
rayrns: folds
Nathan: folds
Isaac: folds
ArlBsch: folds
ADUBS23: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [6c 4d 6h]
ADUBS23: checks
Guy: bets $0.50
ADUBS23: calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [6c 4d 6h] [Qc]
ADUBS23: checks
Guy: bets $1.20
ADUBS23: calls $1.20
*** RIVER *** [6c 4d 6h Qc] [Qh]
ADUBS23: bets $1
Guy: calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ADUBS23: shows [7d 5d] (two pair, Queens and Sixes)
Guy: shows [Th Kc] (two pair, Queens and Sixes - King kicker)
Guy collected $6.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $6.35 | Rake $0.30
Board [6c 4d 6h Qc Qh]
Seat 1: ArlBsch (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: ADUBS23 showed [7d 5d] and lost with two pair, Queens and Sixes
Seat 3: Guy showed [Th Kc] and won ($6.05) with two pair, Queens and Sixes
Seat 4: rayrns folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Nathan (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Isaac (small blind) folded before Flop





And the grand finale.....

This is why you should never EVER fold preflop!!!!!

PokerStars Game #16420249983: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/04/01 - 19:41:21 (ET)
Table 'Prospero V' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Matt ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: forseti23 ($7 in chips)
Seat 3: Guy ($11.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Nathan ($9.55 in chips)
Seat 6: Isaac ($16.35 in chips)
Nathan: posts small blind $0.05
Isaac: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Guy [Qh Td]
Matt: raises $0.20 to $0.30
forseti23: calls $0.30
Guy: calls $0.30
Nathan: raises $1.20 to $1.50
Isaac: folds
Matt: calls $1.20
forseti23: folds
Guy: folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd Tc Qc]
Nathan: checks
Matt: bets $2
Nathan: calls $2
*** TURN *** [Qd Tc Qc] [4d]
Nathan: checks
Matt: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qd Tc Qc 4d] [Jh]
Nathan: checks
Matt: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Nathan: shows [Ks Kh] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Matt: mucks hand
Nathan collected $7.35 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.70 | Rake $0.35
Board [Qd Tc Qc 4d Jh]
Seat 1: Matt mucked [8d 8h]
Seat 2: forseti23 folded before Flop
Seat 3: Guy (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Nathan (small blind) showed [Ks Kh] and won ($7.35) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 6: Isaac (big blind) folded before Flop

March Review

I know its not quite the end of the month yet, but I do not intend to play any poker tomorrow and so thought it best to do my March Review now.... also haven't posted for a while as have been away over the weekend skiing in the alps :)

First off, Hannes' posted a question in my last blog entry asking why I play 4 tables if I play better poker when I am only playing 2. The reason is that although I play better poker when 2 tabling, my hourly winrate is still bigger when I 4 table. As long as my winrate is over half of what it is when I 2 table then I will make more money by 4 tabling. This is why I usually 4 table, but go down to 2 tables when I want to tweak my game.

I have played a total of 20074 hands in March for a profit of about $500. I don't know the exact amount because the rakeback calculator in Holdem Manager is not 100% accurate.... but $500 including rakeback should be pretty close to the actual value.

Although this is slightly more than my February winnings, I have played more hands. I feel that I have been playing better poker, but (as always) I still have a long way to go. In my defence, I ran really badly in the middle of the month, and then ran breakeven for most of the rest of it.... but that shouldn't be an excuse.

Through recent discussions on MSN with James, I think that I have identified 2 major leaks in my game:

The first one was my blind play when there were late position limpers. I was reminded of a comment I once made at one of the uni tournaments: "Any time you get more money in while you're ahead you're playing well", I would like to retract this comment as it is very over generalised and does not take into account many other factors, the most important being that playing hands out of position vs an aggressive opponent who knows how to use position to their advantage has a huge effect on the relative strength of your hand. With hands such as KTo I would often raise in the BB if the CO or BTN limped, but playing a hand as weak as KTo out of position vs even semi-aggressive opponents is very difficult and almost certainly -EV because of their positional advantage. Versus very loose passive opponents position is not as important because they do not know how to bluff or semibluff and so its much easier to know if you have the best hand, but vs good aggressive opponents, raising KTo out of position is bad because it is very rarely going to make a very strong hand, and it will not be difficult for an aggressive opponent to push you off the best hand using their positional advantage. The discussion concluded that position counts as a 2:1 advantage in the hand and so to play a hand out of position, you should add 33% to your opponents equity which I think is a pretty accurate estimation.

The second leak I discovered, was that I was making very little money on the button, much less than in the cutoff, I think this is due to coldcalling raises with hands such as QJs, ATs and AJo where I didn't want to 3-bet or fold. I think that this is a pretty blatant leak, and it has had a really significant effect on my winrate. This month I have made a whopping $728 in the CO but lost a total of $82 OTB, clearly a massive leak as I should be making even more from the BTN than from the CO. By using the filters in Holdem Manager, I discovered that I very rarely coldcalled from the CO but often did from the BTN, which is where most of my losses have come from. I need to learn to let go of hands such as QJs when there is an early position raise because my postflop edge is not enough to play these hands profitably when I am not the aggressor. I believe that I am also 3-betting a little too liberally from the BTN and am loosing money in 3-bet pots from the BTN too.

I have qualified for Ironman 'Silver' status on Full Tilt, not really a great achievement because the 'medals' are worth very little, but I guess every little counts.

As always, I have learned a lot about poker in the past month and I think that I have improved as a player. I am going to try to fix the two leaks identified this month and attempt to boost my winrate a bit, however I have an increasing amount of work to do for uni at the moment and so will not be able to play very much poker over the next two months, but I will still be keeping my blog updated with the small amount of poker I do play.

As much as I am embarrassed to show it, I can't really write a March review without posting my very unimpressive graph. The green line is winnings and the blue line is winnings + rakeback (though rakeback is not 100% accurate). As you can see from the graph, its one big horrible breakeven stretch, but I'm making money so I can't complain, and I have learned a lot about my game.



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I am going to Spain for a week on Thursday, so wont be able to blog for a week, but will be back around the 11th with some news.

Happy grinding :)

Tilt is -EV?

I am pretty burned out this month, played a lot of hands, especially towards the start of the month and I think that it has had quite a big impact on my game. I have been pretty much breakeven for the last 15K hands and I can't just say 'varience', there are some clear leaks in my game. I have been playing between 4 to 5 tables and am playing for longer and longer sessions. Often I find myself getting frustrated after about 2 hours because I am not up very much and then I start to loose concentration on the game and tilt. Tilt comes in a variety of flavours, and tiredness + frustration produces a very potent but subtle form.

I am well on track to qualify for 'Ironman silver' this month and so I am going to try to take the rest of the month easy. I am going to take a few days off playing this weekend and try to watch some more deuces cracked vids as well as posting on the 2+2 forum.

Last night I played in a $10+1 tourney on Full Tilt just to mix it up a bit and ended up coming 21st out of about 290 when I lost a race with AJ vs 66. I think I played well during the tournament and managed to do well despite being very card dead (66 was my highest PP and AQ my highest non paired hand in 3 hours) as well as running 55 and A3 into AA when I shoved the BTN vs the blinds, I lost both hands but luckily was up against smaller stacks. After the first hour my stack never got above 15BBs so I was shortstacked for almost the entire tourney but I managed to hold on and I was just unlucky not to win the 50/50 at the crucial time and therefore busted in 21st for a disappointing $16. I think that my biggest leak was playing too tight on the bubble, where I think I should be shoving any 2 when folded to me OTB, because I need to build a decent stack.... but I intend to play a few more small buyin tourneys this month so will see how it goes.

Decided to play a 1 hour session today 2 tabling so I could really concentrate on my game. I opened up a bunch of tables and picked the best 2. I have to say.... by playing 2 tables and really concentrating on every hand, I think I produced some of the best poker I have ever played. Maybe I was just running well, but I planned every hand and thought carefully about each decision and not once did I find myself in a tough spot with no idea what to do. I think that cutting down to just a couple of tables is really beneficial and I am going to try to do it once a week or so to try to improve my game.

Will try to post regularly over the next few weeks. Until then......

Plodding along

Sorry about the lack of posts recently, I have been very busy with work, and when I have not been working I have been playing.

March has been 'interesting' since my last post on the 6th. In the last 11 days I have played a whopping 11250 hands of poker, generated $453.97 of rake and all I have to show for it is a loss of $13.93. Add rakeback to that however and it looks more like $100 so I guess its not 'too' bad.

In my defence I have been running very very badly, I have been dealt AA 54 times for a loss of $92.03 with a measly 40% won at showdown and at one point I was down $280 just with AA.

Although I have been running bad, I think that my play is still improving, I am becoming more and more confident at 50NL and I think that I am almost at the point where I feel comfortable that I can beat the game, although I still have some major leaks which need to be fixed.

I am doing the iron man challenge on Full Tilt this month, will not be able to make iron, but am on track for silver and should be able to make gold. I don't think that the iron man promotion is very good value, but I would like to prove to myself that I have enough stamina to do it.

Have also purchased Holdem Manager to replace Poker Tracker 2, I debated for quite a while before getting it because I had tested out the beta and had trouble getting used to the interface, but I bit the bullet and forked out $55 for the 'small stakes' version which will import hands up to 50NL (there is a $25 addon to purchase the 'full' version which will import higher stakes). I have now managed to get used to the layout and HUD and I love it. It is still being developed and so there are some bugs and a few features missing but there are regular updates and 'Roy' seems to be pretty good at fixing all the issues.

Here is my graph for the month, the green line is my poker winnings and the blue line is poker winnings + RB (i.e. net winnings), its been a pretty breakeven month so far, but hopefully I will start running better soon. There is a pretty sick downswing in the middle where I dropped about 6BI at 50NL and then a long breakeven stretch where I decided to play 25NL for a bit. The final 5000 hands are 50NL again.



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And just thought I would share a screenshot from today where I tured quad kings, doesn't happen everyday. (Admire the table mod :))



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Term has now finished and am going home tomorrow, getting the train down to London and am going to see if I can grind out 3 hours of poker on the train if they have wireless... should be interesting.