Monday 21 April 2008

96% equity is NOT enough

It seems my luck has not yet changed and I continue to be murdered by the deck. I have now passed the 10BI mark and so can label this as a genuine 'big' downswing.

Played about 800 hands last night for a net loss of 4BIs at 30NL, although I think that I played well. Am liking my new 'tigher' style as it avoids getting into tricky spots, and people seem to 3-bet me less.

The 'big beat' last night was getting it AI with a Q high flush draw on the turn vs a really badly played straight, and him rivering a straight flush. Luckily he was only shortstacked, but I think that this is still a pretty insane beat. Poker stove analysis shows him to have 4% equity on the turn. Here is the hand.

Also managed to get it AI with a straight vs a set on the turn for a full stack, but full tilt decided that I don't deserve to win.... so he riveres a boat. The reason I call the 3-bet preflop is because the player is very tight, and I think his 3-betting range is very strong, giving me good implied odds if I hit hard with KTs. Hand here

Twice I got 3 outered, first hand where I flopped the nut straight with a J high flush redraw (J9 on a 8QT board), an insanely strong hand. I managed to get it AI 3-ways, vs AQ and K9, and turned a J giving K9 a higher straight, and missing my flush outs. Second 3 outer was vs a shortstack who thought it wise to 3-bet me with A2o and then barrel away with A high, maybe he already knew what the river card would be? Hand here.

A few other coolers to go with the above.... called a minraise on a JTA54r board on the river in a small pot with A9 vs villains A4 and took my self to valuetown with A9 vs AT on a A35KQ board.

So all in all poker is not treating me well at the moment..... (sympathy please)

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